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The Morning View: April 30, 2021

Announced this morning, Personal Income increased 21.1% in March, higher than estimates, driven by the receipt of stimulus payments.  Personal Spending increased 4.2% in March, about as expected and follows a -1.0% decline the previous month.  The March PCE Deflator, increased 0.5% in the month and has increased 2.3% on an annual basis, as expected.  The Core PCE Deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.4% in March and grew 1.8% on an annual basis, also near estimates.  Overall, a large increase in personal income, driven mostly by government stimulus payments with personal spending about as expected.  These dynamics pushed the personal savings rate up to 27.6% for March, which could be fuel for additional spending in future months.  As vaccinations continue and individuals get back to pre-pandemic behaviors, the strength of economic growth, inflationary pressures, and the pace of the recovery in the labor market will all need to be monitored closely by the Federal Reserve, to determine when their accommodative stance needs to change.  In all, bond yields are little-changed, and equity futures are lower as we head into the market open.

This material is intended to be for informational purposes only and is intended for current or prospective clients of Argent Trust Company. This information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, and its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Information does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy, is not intended as investment advice, and does not take into account all the circumstances of each investor. Forward-looking assumptions are Argent Trust Company’s current estimates or expectations of future events or future results based on proprietary research and should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a portfolio may achieve. Actual results could differ materially from the results indicated by this information. Investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.