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The Morning View: June 15, 2021

Announced this morning, Retail Sales for May decreased -1.3%, a bigger drop than expected. Clothing & Accessories stores were strong during the month, while Building Materials and Motor Vehicles & Parts stores were among those that were weak. The Control Group, which excludes sales for food, autos, building materials, and gas stations, decreased -0.7% in May, also a larger drop than expected.  Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index was up 0.8% in May and is up 6.6% on an annual basis, both more than estimates.  The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 0.7% in May and is up 4.8% on an annual basis.  Overall, weak retail sales in May, which were affected by stimulus payments that were in the system in April.  At the same time, inflationary pressures remain at the producer level, continuing the questions of whether increases in particular parts of the economy (Used Car Prices, Airline Fares) will remain high as capacity returns in the months ahead.  The comments following this week’s Federal Reserve meeting will be closely watched for when they will adjust their accommodative policy given the recent economic data points.  In all, bond yields are slightly higher and equity futures are mixed as we head into the market open.

This material is intended to be for informational purposes only and is intended for current or prospective clients of Argent Trust Company. This information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, and its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Information does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy, is not intended as investment advice, and does not take into account all the circumstances of each investor. Forward-looking assumptions are Argent Trust Company’s current estimates or expectations of future events or future results based on proprietary research and should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a portfolio may achieve. Actual results could differ materially from the results indicated by this information. Investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.