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The Morning View: June 25, 2021

Announced this morning, Personal Income decreased -2.0% in May, a bit less negative than expected. Personal Spending was flat in May, which was less than expected. The PCE Deflator, increased 0.4% in May and has increased 3.9% on an annual basis. The Core PCE Deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.5% in May and grew 3.4% on an annual basis. Overall, muted data points on income and spending, which still reflect comparisons to previous months that included stimulus payments. Inflation measures remain elevated, including the core PCE Deflator at 3.4%, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s average target of 2% for the second month in a row. The balance between increased high-frequency activity, such as dining out, flying, and staying in hotels, and more structural issues, such as higher wages and supply chain constraints, will need to be closely watched in the months ahead to see if inflationary pressures remain transitory or if they will persist. In all, bond yields ticked slightly lower following the release of the data, and equity futures are higher as we head into the market open.

This material is intended to be for informational purposes only and is intended for current or prospective clients of Argent Trust Company. This information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, and its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Information does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy, is not intended as investment advice, and does not take into account all the circumstances of each investor. Forward-looking assumptions are Argent Trust Company’s current estimates or expectations of future events or future results based on proprietary research and should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a portfolio may achieve. Actual results could differ materially from the results indicated by this information. Investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.