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The Morning View: June 26, 2020

BY: MARSHALL BARTLETT
Senior Vice President / Portfolio Manager

Announced this morning, Personal Spending increased 8.2% in May, a bit less than expected but still a rebound from a strong decrease in April.  Conversely, Personal Income fell by -4.2% in May, slightly better than expected and follows a double-digit increase in April.  In addition, the PCE core deflator, a measure of inflation, grew 1.0% on an annual basis.  While still below Fed targets it is a one tenth increase from the previous month, giving a slight respite to those fearing a deflationary environment. Overall, both spending and income remain volatile as the economy works through a choppy re-opening process.  Consumers appear eager to return to spending habits even with a fall in income. The massive fiscal stimulus efforts already in place, such as the additional unemployment benefits, help explain this dynamic and underscore the importance of getting the balance correct between re-opening and further stimulus in the weeks ahead.  In all, bond yields are little changed to lower this morning and equity futures are lower as we had into the market open.  

This material is intended to be for informational purposes only and is intended for current or prospective clients of Argent Trust Company. This information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, and its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Information does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy, is not intended as investment advice and does not take into account all the circumstances of each investor. Forward-looking assumptions are Argent Trust Company’s current estimates or expectations of future events or future results based on proprietary research and should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a portfolio may achieve. Actual results could differ materially from the results indicated by this information. Investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.